Visitor essay by Larry Hamlin
The L. A. Occasions takes despicable propaganda benefit of the current and tragic Encinitas bluff collapse to hype future bluff erosion impacts from 2 meter sea stage rise will increase that will the truth is take over 9+ centuries to happen at current NOAA tide gauge coastal sea stage rise measurement charges.
The Occasions article notes:
“The ocean is rising larger and sooner in California — a actuality extra officers are actually confronting. Simply final week, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed a invoice that amended the state’s Coastal Act to say that sea stage rise is not a query however a reality.
“With sea stage rise, there’s little question that we’ll see extra cliff failures alongside the coast,” stated Patrick Barnard, analysis director of the U.S. Geological Survey’s Local weather Impacts and Coastal Processes Crew.”
The “invoice” referred to within the Occasions article merely provides the phrases “sea stage rise” to the record of points to be thought of for coastal planning contained in Part 300006.5 of the Public Assets Code.
The Occasions article grossly mischaracterizes and misrepresents the difficulty of coastal sea stage rise by claiming that this transformation means “that sea stage rise is not a query however a reality.”
Both this Occasions reporter is extremely incompetent or she is being extremely devious and disingenuous in making an attempt to border the difficulty as being whether or not sea stage rise is going on on California coastal areas or not.
Because the diagram beneath clearly reveals sea stage rise has been occurring for the reason that finish of the final ice age some 20,000 years in the past with the final eight,000 years displaying low charges of improve.
The controversial sea stage rise concern associated to local weather science has all the time been whether or not coastal sea stage rise is accelerating not whether or not it’s occurring.
Nowhere does the Occasions reporter ever point out or deal with the essential local weather science concern of sea stage rise acceleration.
There are two very long time interval NOAA tide gauge measurement stations situated close to the area of the bluff collapse. These stations are situated at San Diego and La Jolla.
These NOAA tide gauge measurement stations have knowledge recorded intervals of 112 years from 1906 via 2018. Neither of those stations reveals any acceleration of coastal sea stage rise throughout these measurement intervals.
The charges of coastal sea stage rise at these areas are a constant eight.5 to eight.6 inches per century as proven beneath.
The two meter sea stage rise that the reporter speculatively postulates on this Occasions article would take 9+ centuries to happen.
This Occasions reporter has written a lot of prior L. A. Occasions local weather alarmist propaganda articles about future sea stage rise and has not addressed the difficulty by utilizing really measured NOAA coastal tide gauge sea stage rise knowledge. She has all the time addressed future sea stage rise primarily based solely upon hypothesis and conjecture derived from pc fashions in making an attempt to justify her future sea stage rise assertions and this text isn’t any completely different.
The diagram beneath reveals her try and justify the two meter future sea stage rise hypothesis leading to as much as 130 toes of future bluff erosion consequence by 2100 utilizing outcomes from a examine revealed within the Journal of Geophysical Analysis in 2018.
This examine accommodates the next characterization of its important limitations:
“A calibrated, however unvalidated, ensemble was utilized to the 475-km-long shoreline of Southern California (USA), with 4 SLR situations of zero.5, zero.93, 1.5, and a pair of m by 2100. Outcomes counsel that future retreat charges might improve relative to imply historic charges by greater than twofold for the upper SLR situations, inflicting a mean complete land lack of 19–41 m by 2100. Nonetheless, mannequin uncertainty ranges from ±5 to 15 m, reflecting the inherent difficulties of projecting cliff retreat over a number of a long time. To boost ensemble efficiency, future work might embrace weighting every mannequin by its ability in matching observations in several morphological settings.”
Subsequently we’ve one more L. A. Occasions article pushing sea stage rise local weather alarmist propaganda that ignores and conceals 112 yr very long time interval NOAA tide gauge knowledge measurements whereas hyping pc fashions which might be “unvalidated” and topic to the pure hypothesis and conjecture of “retreat charges might improve” from the research authors.
Moreover the Occasions article intentionally misrepresents and mischaracterizes the difficulty of sea stage rise by concealing that acceleration is what’s driving this points controversy not whether or not sea stage rise is or is just not occurring.
The prior articles this Occasions reporter have written about sea stage rise don’t deal with sea stage rise acceleration or NOAA tide gauge sea stage rise measurement knowledge.
Local weather alarmist claims of accelerating sea stage rise are unsupported by globally measured tide gauge knowledge as addressed in a current examine within the Journal of Geophysical Analysis which concluded that primarily based on precise measurements there was “no statistically important acceleration in sea stage rise over the previous 100+ years.”
The exploitation of the tragic bluff accident in Encinitas by the Occasions to push its local weather alarmist sea stage rise propaganda is despicable.