Sun. Dec 8th, 2019

The Power Transition in four Charts

There may be little debate that the vitality transition is underway. Nonetheless, the velocity at which it’s taking place could be very a lot in flux.

Wooden Mackenzie just lately compiled a few of its newest energy and renewables forecasts right into a presentation (accessible right here) that reveals its most up-to-date outlooks throughout sectors.

Listed below are just a few of the highlights.

Carbon emissions

WoodMac’s analysts modeled just a few totally different emissions eventualities of their newest Power Transition Outlook. Even below an aggressive-action state of affairs, the outlook is dim for holding international warming beneath 2 °C, with emissions plateauing however not but falling within the 2030s.

FIGURE: How emissions differ by state of affairs, 2000 to 2040

Supply: Wooden Mackenzie Power Transition Outlook

“The vitality combine is altering solely progressively and the world dangers counting on fossil fuels for many years to come back,” Wooden Mackenzie president Neal Anderson writes.

“Regardless of nice efforts to scale back prices in renewables, electrical energy, zero-carbon applied sciences and superior transportation — to not point out burgeoning assist in governmental insurance policies — it isn’t sufficient,” Anderson mentioned. 

“Our evaluation sees carbon emissions persevering with to rise into the 2020s, with development slowing solely within the 2030s. Because of this, our Power Transition Outlook (three °C) and Carbon-Constrained Situation (2.5 °C) fall outdoors 2 °C or decrease trajectories.”

Photo voltaic

After its first down 12 months in current reminiscence, the worldwide photo voltaic market is poised for a rebound in 2019. Nonetheless, Wooden Mackenzie expects a comparatively flat market between 2020 and 2024.

FIGURE: Annual PV demand by main area, 2001-2024E


Supply: Wooden Mackenzie International Photo voltaic Market Outlook Replace, Q2 2019

Power storage

The world noticed immense features in vitality storage deployments in 2018, and Wooden Mackenzie expects the development to proceed. In accordance with the evaluation, “The US is the clear frontrunner, making up 34 p.c of deployed GWh capability by 2024.” It continues, “China (pushed by state-level mandates and coverage), Japan, Australia and South Korea additionally lead the pack.”

FIGURE: International cumulative deployment capability, 2013-2024E (GWh)
Supply: Wooden Mackenize: International vitality storage outlook 2019

Wind energy

On the wind entrance, WoodMac just lately upgraded its forecast due largely to new state-level targets and strengthening renewable portfolio commonplace mechanisms within the U.S.

Supply: Wooden Mackenzie International wind market outlook replace, Q2 2019

The slide deck additionally has Wooden Mackenzie’s newest outlooks on the U.S. utility-scale and residential photo voltaic markets, international superior metering infrastructure, international EV gross sales, offshore wind operations & upkeep and extra. Wooden Mackenzie has made it accessible free of charge right here.

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Be part of the Wooden Mackenzie analyst group this 12 months at Photo voltaic Energy Worldwide. Cease by sales space #7342 to satisfy with the group or demo its Knowledge Hub.

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