With the tip of 2019 approaching, the approaching phasedown of the funding tax credit score is high of thoughts for photo voltaic executives.
In contrast to the ambivalence inside the wind business about an extension of its manufacturing tax credit score, the photo voltaic business has coalesced round help for a continuation of the ITC.
The trigger bought a shot of hope late final month, when lawmakers launched companion payments that might lengthen the credit score for 5 years. Although corporations have formally refined stepdown methods — the most well-liked choice being safe-harboring photo voltaic modules — some executives are actually additionally overtly prognosticating concerning the chance of an extension.
SunPower CEO Tom Werner places the percentages of an ITC extension at round 30 %, up from zero % at the start of 2019. The current introduction of extender payments provides Werner hope — “early indicators” that lawmakers are interested by a bipartisan resolution for renewables. However he thinks they’re unlikely to go of their present type.
“On these two payments, we’re not optimistic,” stated Werner on the corporate’s most up-to-date quarterly earnings name. As a substitute, if lawmakers do lengthen the photo voltaic tax credit score, he expects they’ll achieve this on the finish of the 12 months.
SunPower plans to supply 200 megawatts of modules completely for its safe-harbor plan.
U.S. residential frontrunner Sunrun put the percentages even decrease than SunPower, at round 25 %. Although Sunrun helps an extension and has stated it is going to advocate for one, CEO Lynn Jurich stated the corporate shouldn’t be relying on its passage.
To hedge that threat, Sunrun stated it is created a nonrecourse debt facility designed to supply the corporate flexibility because it copes with the phasedown. The corporate provided restricted particulars on the association throughout its Q2 earnings name. Based on a observe from Financial institution of America Merrill Lynch, “the ability will permit [Sunrun] to fund an ITC safe-harbor on the venture degree with minimal company fairness.”
“We’re doing our greatest to construction it such that whether or not or not there may be an ITC extension, we now have form of lined our bases when it comes to threat and revenue,” stated Sunrun co-founder and government chairman Ed Fenster on the decision.
Fenster stated the corporate has already begun accumulating “small quantities” of safe-harbored stock.
That two-pronged method — advocating for an extension whereas getting ready for a future the place one would not materialize — has grow to be essentially the most generally cited resolution to the tax credit score uncertainty.
‘Pretty lengthy odds’
Although photo voltaic credit have been prolonged in 2015, it is unclear if an analogous compromise is feasible within the present political local weather. Greg Jenner, a tax layer at Stoel Rives, advised Greentech Media that the not too long ago launched extender payments “face pretty lengthy odds” as 2019 attracts to a detailed.
“Passage of any tax laws throughout a presidential election cycle is problematic, and maybe even extra so this election,” stated Jenner. “The one tax laws prone to go, if any, is a invoice to increase tax provisions which have or are about to run out. Even then, the possibilities are that this could solely happen as half of a bigger appropriations bundle and never as freestanding laws.”
Including on one other extension, after the deal negotiated in 2015, might also depart a foul style in some lawmakers’s mouths and curtail help, based on Jenner. In 2015, legislators compromised on the present phasedown.
Vivint Photo voltaic CEO David Bywater, nonetheless, stated the will-they-or-won’t-they surroundings surrounding an ITC extension is “illogical” due to widespread and bipartisan help for renewable vitality.
Throughout Vivint’s Q2 earnings name, Bywater stated the corporate would be a part of business friends in “vigorously advocating” for what he referred to as a “confirmed and environment friendly authorities coverage.”
“The fossil gasoline business has benefited from direct and oblique help for effectively over a century, and the renewable vitality business that’s using so many Individuals deserves a level-playing discipline,” stated Bywater on the decision. “As a result of Individuals worth pollution-free energy, job creation and vitality independence, extending the ITC will allow the photo voltaic business to proceed its development and convey the financial and environmental advantages of renewable photo voltaic vitality and photo voltaic jobs to all areas of America.”
Simply the identical, Vivint, like others, is safe-harboring gear in case the ITC shouldn’t be prolonged.
Enhance for gear suppliers
Strikes to stockpile gear are tightening provide and serving to producers. First Photo voltaic affirmed in its Q2 earnings name that the ITC has elevated demand for product, with some prospects even asking about availability for its older Sequence four product.
Inverter producer SolarEdge stated it doesn’t count on any safe-harbor revenue for Q3, although it’s in discussions with some prospects.
“We assume that we’ll see some safe-harbors,” stated CFO Ronen Faier on the corporate’s Q2 name. “The form, type and numbers shall be disclosed I consider nearer towards the tip of the 12 months.”
Competitor Enphase, nonetheless, forecasted $6 to $10 million in safe-harbor-related revenues for Q3. CEO Badri Kothandaraman stated This fall is predicted to be the biggest for secure harbored merchandise.
“Our technique is to first tackle the intrinsic demand from all of our prospects, adopted by safe-harbor demand,” stated Kothandaraman on Enphase’s Q2 name.
The safe-harbor shuffle will proceed by means of This fall, when the business might get some readability on the chance of an extension. Regardless of his “lengthy odds” remark, Jenner stated “one can’t rule out the chance” of lawmakers enacting the present extender payments.
But when 2015 is any indication, the business will not have a solution till the ultimate hour.